Paul Anderson, Genesus Southeast Asia
Paul.Anderson_GenesusSoutheastAsia@outlook.com
Thailand
Thailand produces more pigs, but consumption sluggish
Pig production in Thailand is expected to increase 4.7% to 18.3 million heads this year, while, demand will rise by only 2.5% to 1.35 million tonnes and continue to be lower, according to a research.
Conducted by Kasikorn Bank, it said lower raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal are conducive to the growth. Even so, the production remains lower than the level before ASF outbreaks of around 22 million heads per annum.
ASF hit Thailand two years ago. In that year, the production plummeted to 15.8 million heads.
On the consumption side, the growth is only 2.5% and will continue to be lower over the next five years. Over 90% of pork is consumed locally.
Consumption growth is due mainly to lower price of pork. Growing number of tourists also contributes to the rise in pork consumption. From January to October, over 27 million tourists have visited Thailand.
In the long run, pork consumption in the country will continue to decline, the research said. Firstly, the population of Thailand is getting lower. From 2020 to 2023, the population is lower from 66.2 to 66.1 million.
Coupled with negative population growth, Thailand is becoming an aging society. Growing number of elderly citizens directly corresponds to lower pork consumption. Aging people eat pork around 38kg/year, while working people eat around 49kg/year in Thailand.
Philippines
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service post in Manila forecasts 2025 pork production at 1.06 MMT CWE, up almost 2% from the 2024 estimate of 1.04 MMT CWE, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
FAS Manila forecasts swine production profitability to improve in 2025 with feed costs declining as the domestic corn harvest returns to normal. While falling soybean meal prices provided some input cost relief, swine production costs have increased in 2024 due rising domestic corn prices, attributed to the El Nino impact on the corn crop. Corn makes up most of the feed ration for growing-finishing hogs.
Additionally, ASF outbreaks continue to impact the swine industry evidenced by the Philippine Statistics Authority First Half (H)1 2024 hog production estimate declining 2.2 percent compared to H1 2023. Post typically does not follow PSA data on pork production, but PSA’s trendline (Figure 6) aligns with Post’s analysis and sources in terms of this forecast. While ASF cases decreased from January 2024 to March 2024, cases have spread recently (August 2024) and this will limit the forecast growth in pork production in 2025.
Vietnam
The price of the live market pig is now 63,100 vnd/kg in the North; 60,900 vnd/kg in the center; and 61,100 vnd/kg in the South. Average will be around 61,700 vnd/kg ($1.09 USD/lb. liveweight). More detail, please see the link: https://www.anovafeed.vn/anova-feed-gia-heo-hoi-ngay-1411-bien-dong-nhe.
Many farms in the livestock ‘capital’ Thong Nhat invest billions to protect the environment (Source: https://baodongnai.com.vn/media/202411/nhieu-trang-trai-o-thu-phu-chan-nuoi-thong-nhat-dau-tu-tien-ty-de-bao-ve-moi-truong-2d81b1f/).
More than 32,000 tons of foreign pork poured into Vietnam, priced at just over 57,000 VND/kg (Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/hon-32000-tan-thit-lon-ngoai-do-ve-viet-nam-gia-chi-hon-57000-dongkg-20241113160421610.htm).
Vietnam spends nearly 1.4 billion USD importing cheap meat and by-products (Source: https://vnexpress.net/viet-nam-chi-gan-1-4-ty-usd-nhap-thit-va-phu-pham-gia-re-4815211.html).
The increase in meat prices and the control of dangerous livestock diseases are good conditions for farmers to increase their herds to meet the year-end market (Source: http://cucchannuoi.gov.vn/tin-tuc-su-kien-tieu-bieu/chan-nuoi-dbscl-tang-dan-don-thi-truong-cuoi-nam-334262).
Directive No. 41/CT-TTg on focusing on drastic and synchronous implementation of solutions to prevent and control African Swine Fever directs ministries (Source: https://cucthuy.gov.vn/web/guest/-/ch%E1%BB%89-th%E1%BB%8B-s%E1%BB%91-41/ct-ttg-v%E1%BB%81-vi%E1%BB%87c-t%E1%BA%ADp-trung-tri%E1%BB%83n-khai-quy%E1%BA%BFt-li%E1%BB%87t-%C4%91%E1%BB%93ng-b%E1%BB%99-c%C3%A1c-gi%E1%BA%A3i-ph%C3%A1p-ph%C3%B2ng-ch%E1%BB%91ng-b%E1%BB%87nh-d%E1%BB%8Bch-t%E1%BA%A3?redirect=%2F).
According to the Import-Export Department, global pork production in 2025 is expected to decrease due to weak demand and less pork slaughter (Source: https://vietnambiz.vn/gia-heo-hoi-hom-nay-206-dong-loat-dung-yen-trong-ngay-dau-tuan-2022619173038670.htm).
The lack of disease-free zones recognized by the World Organization for Animal Health and the high cost of raising pigs are major obstacles to Vietnam’s pork exports (Source: https://vietnambiz.vn/gia-heo-hoi-hom-nay-206-dong-loat-dung-yen-trong-ngay-dau-tuan-2022619173038670.htm).
