Mercedes Vega, General Director for Spain, Italy & Portugal, Genesus Inc.
According to end of 2021 provisional data, despite the year-end debacle (December 21, Mercolleida at 1.02 €/kg live weight with a production cost of 1.32 €/kg, and 362 € for a ton of feed), the results for the year have been positive:
- Mercolleida average €1.25/kg.
- Cost of production average 1.21 €/kg
- Feed price 320 €/t, annual
In the following graph, we can see the comparison with other years when there was a crisis of raw materials.
Other numbers for 2021:
- Breeder herd census: 2.66 million sows.
- Market weight average for 2021: 118.03 kg vs 116.53 kg for 2020.
- Slaughtered January-October 2021: 47,773,497 hogs vs 46,075,565 same period of 2020, 3.7% more in 2021, extrapolating to the entire year would make 58,198,478 slaughtered for 2021.
- Exports up to November 2021: 2.83 million tons for a value of €7,094 million.
It is complicated to forecast 2022 for several reasons:
- The price of Mercolleida. 2022 started with 1.02 €/kg, and risen to 1.035 €/kg, compared to 2021 when we started with 1.1€/kg and got to 1.42€/kg in the last week of January. We see a considerably lower price for this year.
- Price of raw materials and consequently cost of production. Cost of production as of December 2021 at €1.32/kg compared to €1.15/kg in 2020 – significantly higher for 2021
- ASF: we continue with the Sword of Damocles, as the outbreak in Italy hit the news.
- Covid Pandemic still impacts both production costs and demand.
- Supply/demand. By the end of the winter holidays, as usual, there is more supply than demand. The slaughterhouses in the north of Spain have absorbed this greater supply more than those in the south. Oversupply is being frozen as packers expect to negotiate a better price for export
Exports. China is still a big unknown. In 2021 China has absorbed 41.8% of Spain’s total exports. Although other markets exist and continue to open, China still remains an important export market for Spain.
This post was written by Genesus