By Ben Jones – September 10, 2025
Ontario Market Performance
Weekly Ontario Price (FOB Yard Total Value): Ontario continues to post strong pricing, with the FOB yard total value averaging approximately C$308.42 per 100 kg, holding near the record levels seen in late August. This reflects continued 20+% year-over-year growth, sustaining a very favorable margin environment for producers.
Production & Slaughter: Ontario’s weekly slaughter remains robust at ~88,800 head, keeping pace with seasonal expectations and up slightly versus last year. National Canadian slaughter remains down 2–3% year-over-year, with western provinces still showing lighter throughput compared to Ontario’s steadiness.
Insight: Ontario’s price resilience suggests strong local demand, with premiums well-supported by both packers and retailers. The region’s competitive position continues to shield it from broader national softness.
U.S. Pork Market — Cutout & Primal Trends
USDA Pork Carcass Cutout (Sept 9, 2025): The overall cutout value printed at US$114.16/cwt, down US$2.22 from the prior day. Key primal moves:
- Loins: US$96.48 (↓ US$3.10)
- Butts: US$126.91 (↑ US$1.53)
- Bellies: US$179.41 (↓ US$5.39)
Insight: Butts remain the bright spot, continuing to benefit from strong processed meat and deli demand, while the sharp belly pullback reflects seasonal demand softening after summer peaks. Loins are under pressure, suggesting retail promotion may be easing.
Slaughter & Supply Outlook
Canadian Supply: Ontario remains steady, but western Canada continues to drag national totals slightly lower, keeping Canadian supply in a tight but manageable range.
U.S. Slaughter: USDA estimates ~489,000 head slaughtered, slightly above both last week and last year, showing steady supply. Year-to-date totals remain in line with 2024.
Seasonal Context: As we move past Labor Day, carcass weights typically climb, adding to supply. However, strong demand and limited inventory levels are supporting prices above historical seasonal averages.
Market Insight & Strategic Takeaways
| Factor | Insight |
|---|---|
| Ontario Premiums | Continued strength reinforces producers’ positive margin position and suggests market confidence in quality and supply chain integration. |
| Primal Shifts | U.S. butt strength indicates targeted demand; watch for potential rebound in bellies if freezer inventories tighten. |
| Global Market | China’s sow herd reduction could tighten global supply over the next 6–12 months, potentially supporting export opportunities for Canadian and U.S. pork. |
Why This Matters: Both Ontario and U.S. markets are holding strong despite seasonal headwinds, indicating underlying demand resilience. Producers should remain alert for belly and loin volatility but can benefit from premium pricing and favorable cutout spreads.
Weekly Summary Narrative
Ontario hog prices remain historically high, holding near C$308.42 per 100 kg (+20% YoY), supported by robust demand and strong packer competition. Nationally, slaughter is steady, with Ontario outperforming western provinces. In the U.S., cutout values softened to US$114.16/cwt, led by weakness in loins and bellies, though butts remain firm. Global dynamics including China’s recent move to trim its sow herd may provide future price support. Overall, North American producers are well-positioned entering the fall marketing window.
