As we close out 2025 and look toward the new year, the hog and pork sectors are navigating a patchwork of supply adjustments, shifting demand patterns, and ongoing disease considerations. None of these forces act in isolation, and producers need a grounded view of what’s happening now so planning and risk management can be proactive rather than reactive.
Below is a current market snapshot and analysis focused squarely on what matters most to operators in the barn.
U.S. Production and Price Fundamentals
The most recent USDA data points to a modest contraction in total U.S. pork production for 2025, largely because slaughter rates came in slower than anticipated earlier in the year. Production forecasts have been adjusted downward by roughly 180 million pounds, bringing the expected total for 2025 to approximately 27.6 billion pounds before a modest rebound is forecast for 2026. Lower production in the current year is supporting tighter domestic supplies.
At the same time, feed costs have remained a bright spot for producer margins. Corn prices in key Midwest markets have dipped below typical seasonal levels, and soybean meal has stayed relatively moderate, giving many farrow-to-finish operations improved cost structures. That relief after several tight years of margins can strengthen working capital ahead of next year’s planning cycle.
From a pricing standpoint, national live equivalent hog prices were revised modestly lower for Q4 2025, reflecting softer demand late in the year. However, average hog prices for 2025 are still expected to come in above 2024 levels due to tighter supplies and seasonal buying patterns supporting market floors. Economic Research Service
Tight domestic slaughter supplies support base price levels, but seasonal demand softness and slower throughput mean risk management and cost control remain critical through Q1.
Feed Cost and Margin Dynamics
Feed is the largest single cost component in pork production, often comprising 65 – 75 percent of total variable costs. Grain markets this year have trended lower than the averages seen over the past few years, giving many producers real relief at the feed bunk. terrainag.com
Lower corn and soybean meal prices over the last quarter have helped farrow-to-finish systems return to positive margins, and for the first time in many quarters, even conservative budgeting frameworks show positive profit per head across most regions. Multiple industry analyses show positive producer margins extending into early 2026 if feed prices remain near current levels. terrainag.com
Operational point: Even modest gains in feed efficiency pay dividends when margins are thin. Now is a good time to revisit nutrition programs and tighten ration formulation to capture these cost advantages.
Global Supply Patterns and What They Mean
Globally, pork production is expected to edge up modestly in 2025, with output growth seen across several producing regions supported by stronger herd management and productivity improvements. World pig meat production is forecast to reach more than 126 million tonnes this year, with ongoing livestock efficiency gains partially offsetting disease pressures in some markets. pig333.com
Notably, China continues to adjust its domestic production base. Producers there have reduced the breeding herd modestly, and efforts to curb oversupply in finished hogs are ongoing. Softer wholesale prices in China have been reported, reflecting both supply conditions and slower domestic consumer demand. thepigsite.com
Implications: China’s producer adjustments can ripple through global prices because Asia represents a large share of global pork volume. Continued shifts in Chinese herd dynamics may put downward pressure on global carcass markets if oversupply persists.
Disease Developments and Industry Risk
African Swine Fever continues to shape the global swine landscape. In Spain’s Catalonia region, new ASF cases in wild boar populations triggered emergency responses and movement controls in early December. These measures are aimed at containing the outbreak and protecting the broader production base.
While these developments are in Europe and not in North America, global disease events affect how markets price risk, how buyers allocate volumes, and how processors and exporters plan for continuity of supply.
Producer focus: Even distant disease events underscore the importance of robust biosecurity and respiratory disease management at home. Consistent protocols and farm-level vigilance remain fundamental to long-term operations.
Export Demand Trends and Producer Impacts
Demand from international buyers continues to be an important component of the U.S. pork sector. While export volumes for 2025 are projected slightly lower than 2024 totals due to weaker shipments earlier in the year, strong fourth-quarter demand has helped balance the annual picture, and projections for 2026 show modest growth in export demand. Economic Research Service
Exports help absorb U.S. production and support domestic price levels. Even small shifts in global demand patterns can affect cash versus futures spreads and producer pricing plans. For example, continued resilience in markets across Latin America and parts of Asia can help sustain bases even when domestic consumption slows seasonally.
Producer perspective: Maintain engagement with export demand signals and pricing spreads. Export demand provides a valuable source of price support, especially when domestic cash flows soften seasonally.
Closing Thought
The end of 2025 finds the hog and pork industry in a moment where tight supplies, moderated input costs, and global demand patterns remain intertwined. For producers, the path forward involves balancing operational discipline with strategic market engagement.
Sources
- USDA Hogs & Pork Market Outlook provides current forecasts for pork production, prices, and exports. Economic Research Service
- This includes projections for 2025 commercial pork production (down vs prior forecast) and live hog price expectations. Economic Research Service
- USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2025 report details revised pork production forecasts and slaughter trends. Economic Research Service
- National Hog Farmer article on slow hog slaughter and Q4 production trends confirms incremental production changes and price averages. National Hog Farmer
- Terrain Ag analysis on how feed cost declines and output changes influence producer margins. terrainag.com
Feed Costs and Margin Dynamics
- National Pork Board / National Hog Farmer summary of lower hog supply and moderate feed costs supports commentary on feed trends and grain availability. National Hog Farmer
- Broader feed cost context from Purdue’s commercial ag outlook (feed cost index lower vs prior year). Purdue Agriculture
Note: The specific indices and 2025 feed cost forecasts are typically released near year-end; additional detailed USDA feed cost projections (e.g., WASDE corn/soybean balance) help triangulate the outlook.
Global Production Patterns
- pig333 Emerging pork market trends and outlook in 2025 outlines global pork production and disease impacts, including China and other major producers. Pig333
Price and Futures Activity / Market Indicators
- ThePigSite Lean hogs edge higher amid swine fever inquiry includes recent market price activity and futures signals tied to production expectations. The Pig Site
Producer Profitability and Margins
- Independent market analysis on producer margins showing strong returns in 2025 due to higher prices and moderate feed costs. (e.g., TraderPhD hog margins analysis) traderphd.com
