Allan Bentley, Genesus Sales, USA
By the numbers; Slaughter weights continue to run below last year’s levels. Last week were 4 lbs. lighter than the same period a year ago. I do not see that changing as we move forward with our high feed costs. Slaughter numbers are also running below last year by almost 3%.
On the bear side of things, exports are running 15% below year-ago levels. I also read that someone was predicting a 2% increase in pork production for next year. To that I say poppycock. The uncertainty of the war or its outcome, inflation at 40-year highs, and worst in the rest of the world. High feed cost and high building cost they are wrong. Add to it wore-out hog facilities and wore-out hog producers. No way in hell will we see more hog production next year than this year. I will let Jim write about world pork numbers as he is more knowledgeable about it than I am.
As I talk to veterinarians and other industry people, PRRS did not go away and is actually on the increase. As dry as it has been and PRRS is still an issue then I would keep a close watch on what will happen as colder wetter weather becomes the norm.
Yesterday the western corn belt average price was just tickling $100. If we have $100 prices now, next summer futures prices are $20 undervalued. We will see. A very good friend and I were talking about the CME once. He said Hay or Alfalfa is not traded on the board and buyers and sellers always seem to come together on the price of it. Smart Man!
This post was written by Genesus