Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc. firstname.lastname@example.org
USDA Red Meat & Poultry
October 19, 2015
The October USDA projection for US Red Meat & Poultry Production for 2016 indicates expectations for major protein availability.
Red Meat & Poultry
Production Million Pounds
|2014||2015 projected||2016 projected|
|Total Red Meat & Poultry||91,855||94,366||97,243|
|Disappearance Per Capita||202 lb.||210.6 lb.||
- Sow market is picking up big sows now bringing over 65¢ a big bump compared to a few weeks ago. Selling sows, buying gilts is a good cash flow scenario right now.
- Cash US early wean pig price is recovering from the $15 per head a couple months ago averaging about $37 last week. At $37 most, if not all producers should not be losing money. $15 was not if you were losing; it was how much a head. Going forward we suspect the price to continue to rise. One early wean broker told us last week that he expects early weans to reach $60.
- The US corn harvest is in full swing. For what it is worth all the producers, we have talked to are relatively happy with their yields. Some have the best yields ever. December corn at $3.76 close Friday night have little traction to increase unless the US dollar declines relative to other currencies.
- We do not sense a strong push for expansion in Canada or USA. The relative fear of low prices and the deluge of meat coming is holding most expansion in check. In Canada there is if not zero expansion then next to zero. In the US incremental expansion but nothing like in the 90’s when 100’s of thousands of sows were placed in new facilities. Now that’s over and we suspect will never happen again.
- Packer margins remain strong – US Pork Cut–Outs 88¢ per pound – Market Hogs 70¢ per pound. Packers have a good margin. We remain positive that the 88¢ per pound reflects strong pork demand. Last week 2.3 million hogs went to market. The strong US pork cut–outs in the face of so many hogs should help hog prices when market numbers decline seasonally.
Categorised in: Pork Commentary
This post was written by Genesus