USDA March 1st. Hogs and Pigs Report: More of the sameLast Friday the U.S.D.A. released the March 1st Hogs and Pigs Report. There are no big surprises. It shows an industry treading water. We expect prices will track over the coming months very close to where lean hog futures closed. For example last Friday with June at 103.70 U.S. Breeding Herd The U.S. breeding herd was estimated at 5.788 million on March 1st up 28,000 from a year ago (5.760) and up 10, 000 (5.778) from December 1st. This is a year over year difference of about ½ of 1%; basically no change. At this time we see no indications of significant expansion plans. Historically high hog prices are being balanced off by historically high feed prices and real tight financial credit. The mood of the industry in our estimation is restrained optimism. There appears to be little enthusiasm for breeding herd expansion. Market The U.S.D.A. estimated 58,176 million market hogs in inventory March 1st up just under 400,000 head from a year ago. The 400,000 head increase can be explained by our market hog weights up around 4 – 5 pounds year over year. Heavier hogs lead to longer days to market and larger inventories. 400,000 head is just over one day of U.S. hog marketing’s. Farrowing Intentions The U.S. breeding herd according to the U.S.D.A. on March 1st was ½ of 1% higher than a year ago. If this is correct you would expect farrowing intentions to be essentially the same as a year ago.
U.S.D.A. Farrowing (thousands)
|MARCH – MAY||3018||2929||2854|
|JUNE – AUGUST||2959||2944||2867|
- We visited Korean customers this past week, the Foot and Mouth disease has eliminated approximately 350,000 sows and 3.5 million market hogs. Last week’s South Korean market hog price touched $7.00 U.S. live weight a kilogram or about $3.28 U.S. per pound. A price we have never seen so high, anywhere. Prices are always a reflection of supply and demand. Prices of $7.00 per kilogram are a true reflection of this scenario. Expect extraordinary amounts of pork to be exported to South Korea from North America in the coming months. It will be extremely price supporting.
- Packers we talked to last week and other reports indicate Japanese Pork Exports continue unabated despite the crisis underway. It’s a major reason June lean hog futures have recovered from 95 cents to $1.03 in the last ten days.
Categorised in: Pork Commentary
This post was written by Genesus