Canada’s Breeding Herd Steady
Statistics Canada released Canada’s Swine Inventory for October 1st last week.Hogs on Farms Canada
October 1st (thousands of head)
YEAR |
BREEDING STOCK |
ALL OTHER HOGS |
2004 |
1628 |
13216 |
2010 |
1307 |
10577 |
2011 |
1308 |
10681 |
Live Hog Exports to U.S. from Canada
Jan – Oct 22, 2011
2011 |
2010 |
% change |
|
Barrows/Gilts/Sow |
812842 |
879983 |
-7.6 |
Feeder pig |
3793407 |
3755443 |
+1.0 |
Total |
4606249 |
4635426 |
-0.6 |
Continental Inventory
In conjunction with the release of Canada’s Swine Inventory the U.S.D.A. prepares a U.S.A. – Canada combined inventory.Hogs and Pigs Inventory Number by Class and Quarter – United States and Canada
September U.S.A. – October – Canada (thousand head)
|
2010 |
2011 |
Kept for breeding |
7077 |
7114 |
Market |
70779 |
71475 |
Sows Farrowed |
3655 |
3600 |
Pig Crop |
35984 |
36252 |
Chicken Little Economists
We are accused of being optimistic and we are certainly not Chicken Little Economists. Last week in the North American Review Dr. Steve Meyer economist listed potential sky is falling scenarios. His List *A trade disruption that would leave any significant portion of the 22% or so of U.S. production that will be exported this year. *Something that negatively impacts U.S. consumer level pork demand. *A 2012 corn crop below 12 million bushels *Output growth of 4% or more and maybe even less depending on the 2012 corn crop *Insufficient slaughter capacity in the fourth quarter 2012 Of course Dr. Meyers is right – these are all points that could impact our industry. It’s good to be aware of what might go wrong. Be prudent. We see differently, we don’t dwell on what might go wrong. We are all descendents of immigrants that came here with little but optimism. Over generations a next to vacant land has been built into the world’s largest economy, the world’s most innovative with the world’s best productivity. A society that looks ahead not quivering from what might go wrong. The sky is falling!! Personally, having travelled to 38 pig producing countries I find it defeatist to think anything but that we can compete in the world. We have capital, expertise, and infrastructure from production to packing – second to none. Our perspective to Dr. Meyers Points: *The world wealth is growing. They want meat protein – this leads to more pork exports not less. *Pork is the safest meat product. No e – coli scares, no salmonella scares. Consumers have more fear of cantaloupes. *In 2012 every acre will be planted for corn, wheat, and soybean in the U.S. and the world. One of 10 years there are U.S. crop failures. You go broke betting on crop failures (corn in China $9 per bushel last week). *More hog output of 4% by fall 2012? The September sow herd is the one bred for next fall. 4% increase will not happen from a ½ of 1% greater sow herd. *1/2 of 1% more sows on September 1st will never produce enough hogs to overwhelm U.S. packer capacity next fall. The fear of 1998 is a red herring. One other note: *We have been writing for a couple of years about the huge increase in planted grain acres in the world. High prices have lead to more wheat acres. The International Grains Council to project the world’s wheat inventories the highest in ten years at 684 million tons. December wheat closed at $6.23 last Friday. That is down over $3.00 ($9.65) a bushel from the high earlier this year. Wheat at $6.23 will help keep the corn price down. Wheat can and will feed pigs as a substitute ingredient. As it is said: ‘Surest cure to high prices is high prices.’Categorised in: Pork Commentary
This post was written by Genesus