Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.
firstname.lastname@example.org September 22, 2014
USDA September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report
Last Friday the USDA released the September 1st Hogs and Pigs Report. Our Observations
- No question the breeding herd is expanding. June 1st breeding inventory was 5.855 million, on September 1st 5.920 million. Up 65 thousand in 13 weeks or up 5 thousand a week. Year over year the breeding herd is up about 100 thousand. About 2% more sows certainly no doubt gives 2% more production going forward. Our sense is if we gained 5,000 sows a week through the summer, the same pace will be maintained currently. Take home message – Despite PED issues, recorded profits are leading to more sows in production. We expect much of expansion has been facilities moving to maximum capacity.
- 3% less market hogs average for the next 6 months will be positive for hog prices. We expect lean hog prices to run 5% plus average over last year in the same time frame.
- Despite 2% more breeding sows in inventory, the June – August Pig Crop was 1% smaller than last year. We expect a big part of that is PED mortality issues that were greater this summer than last.
- Expected farrowings projected in September – November 4% higher than last year with 2% more sows? We believe the 4% number is producer wishful thinking.
- Where has expansion of the breeding herd been over the last year?
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Categorised in: Pork Commentary
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